As the weeks go on and the Oilers hold their place atop the standings the biggest question around the NHL is, are those young Oilers for real? Do they own a legitimate record amongst the elite teams? Where teams like the San Jose Sharks, Detroit Redwings, Washington Capitals, Vancouver Canucks, Pitsburgh Penguin's and Chicago Blackhawks have been occupying for the past 5 years.
The Oiler's are currently 1st in the Northwest Division and 2nd in the Conference with a 9.3.2 record. They have the leagues best goal's against and 6th in goal differential with +10. However they are 24th in goals scored with only 33 through 14 games. Netminder Khabiboulin is the top goaltender in the league with a 0.98 goals against and 0.964 save percentage. We all know this, it's been beat down our throats the past 2 weeks.
So are the Oilers for real? If we're going by stats alone, it looks like the old stifling defence of a Dallas team in '96-'99 that only averaged 167 goals per season and Mike Modano was the scoring leader.
I've been criticizing the Oilers quite a bit the past few weeks, refusing to drink the fan-made Oilers koolaid, and getting chirped for not "enjoying the wins". I do enjoy the wins, I love every single second of it. I love rubbing it in the faces of the Calgary Flames and especially the overrated Vancouver Canucks. However, that doesn't mean we should book the Stanley Cup parade through downtown as some have already. Wait...Let's be real, even if we won the Stanley Cup, City Council would abolish any parade as it only impacts a certain select group of tax payers. Tony Caterina would need to make sure the roads are properly dusted, the parade route is economical, and only if the engineers have laid out a couple different options. So why am I critical? Well because they're playing like a team that isn't pushing a win, but trying not to lose. This is deja vu from the old Mac T days, where he was under fire for not allowing the "offensive potential" to shine by implementing a defensive system. Heaven forbid. The only difference right now is an insanely hot goalie and the creative juices of the kid line (we still don't have a bonafide name for them). I was the biggest Mac T critic. I hated how we would go into a defensive shell in the third period, I screamed profanities when Toby Peterson played more minutes than Hemsky, I yelled WTF everytime I saw Ty Conklin, and laughed when Ethan Moreau took penalties but was never benched. Let's not forget how stellar Tommy Salo was for us, as Khabby is now. I really don't want to jump into comparisons, so I will get back on topic.
The kid line is exciting, getting hard minutes on the road and soft minutes at home. When will they break out on the road while facing the other team's top defence pairing every night? Would that line still be a success if they score 30+ points at home and 10-15 points on the road? Or will they fall into the Gagner-Cogliano-Nilsson trap again? Obviously the skill level of RNH, Hall and Eberle is not even close. These kids will be NHL'ers for the next 18 years if they keep improving on their god given skills and drive.
Right now the Oilers are arguably the best counterattack team in the NHL (I'd put Washington up there as well), solid team defence where the forwards are pinching down to help the defencemen in the zone, and stellar goaltending. The second line with Horcoff and Smyth has been outstanding. They take over the game when the kids are not producing and fight for every inch on the ice. It's been great seeing Smyth dart from the boards to the net in a relentless pursuit of the puck. You can't teach that passion. He lives it everytime he's on the ice. So what can the Oilers improve on?
The Oilers need to work on sustained pressure through smart forechecking, and what I mean is good puck support on the player entering the zone via dump in from the winger. The center can hang back and pick off any outlet passes, and the defencemen can step up to cut off passes at the line. However, when the Oilers have a lead, they're sending 1 winger high, and the other 2 forwards are covering the defensive side of the faceoff circles, which is essentially a 1-2-2 in from the center line out. It's almost like a wait and see approach that Phoenix has been implenting for the past 3 years post-Gretzky. We've seen this success for the Minnesota Wild for far too many years. The Tampa Bay Lightning implemented a hard 1-2-2 system from the neutral zone out against the Flyers, which turned into the greatest debacle since Avery's face washing job on Brodeur in the playoffs.
The Oilers need a third line. It is without a doubt that Gagner is not in the long term plans of the Oilers. He's too small, too slow and easily checked off the puck. He tries headfakes through the neutral zone without moving his feet, and he's rubbed off the puck in the corners. He's trying, but something just isn't right. Belanger is the defensive specialist we've needed since Peca left, and MPS is struggling like something fierce. Once this line is tweaked so that Gagner isn't being showcased, then we'll see how good this team can be. For the Oilers to be contenders, I truly believe the key is this line. So what would I do? I would move Jones to the fourth line with Belanger and Eager/Petrell. And give Lander, Magnus Paajarvi and Omark a real shot. Not benching him for every mistake he makes. Renney needs to show him patience and confidence. as he has done for Gagner, Cogliano and Paajarvi. The kid wants to work at it, he hasn't flown back to Europe or demanded a trade.
So are the Oiler's are for real?
Yes they are, they're playing solid team defence that is sustainable. The kid line will continue to draw hard minutes, and Horcoff/Smyth is not a fluke. The fourth line is consistently good. They might not get unbelievable goaltending every game, but if they can get points for every 2 of 4 games, they'll be just fine and in the playoffs. Anything can happen in the playoffs.
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